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La popolazione urbana: quali prospettive?

Nel 2008 è stato raggiunto un traguardo considerato storico da tutti coloro che si occupano di studiare i fenomeni demografici e urbani: per la prima volta la maggioranza della popolazione mondiale vive nelle città. Le previsioni indicano inoltre che la popolazione urbana è destinata ad aumentare ulteriormente raggiungendo il 60% della popolazione mondiale nel 2030, e il 70% nel 2050.

In altri termini le proiezioni realizzate dalle Nazioni Unite indicano che tra il 2007 e il 2050 la popolazione residente in città passerà da 3,3 miliardi a 6,4 miliardi, e che tale crescita sarà principalmente concentrata nelle città dei paesi in via di sviluppo. La percentuale di popolazione urbanizzata in questi paesi è oggi inferiore a quella dei paesi sviluppati, dove già nel 1950 più della metà della popolazione viveva in aree urbane, ma conosce una crescita molto rapida. Nei paesi più sviluppati infatti la popolazione urbana si è stabilizzata su un valore pari al 74%, con tassi di crescita pari allo 0,6%, mentre paesi come l’Africa, con un tasso di crescita pari al 3,4%, ed Asia, con un tasso di crescita pari al 2,6%, stanno vivendo cambiamenti demografici significativi: se oggi il 40% della popolazione di questi continenti vive in ambiente urbano, si prevede che nel 2030 la maggioranza della popolazione di queste regioni vivrà in città.

A cura di Alice Benessia, Maria Bucci, Simone Contu, Vincenzo Guarnieri.

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